Forecasting Sales and Developing Budgets
Introduction
This paper will synthesize the findings from the Cassar and Gibson (2008) study. Analogies and experiences will also be used to discuss and analyze the study findings. In addition, the relevance of these findings to the relationship between forecasting methods and budget development will also be discussed. Finally, this paper will also make recommendations on how organizations may address the strategic relationship between planning and performance.
A synthesis of the findings from the Cassar and Gibson (2008) study
There are many variables that are used in making forecasts, and these variables include patterns of past sales, sales in the current period, the economic
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In other words, the more complex the product is, the more variables there are to consider in developing a sales forecast, especially for an organization with a new innovation that has no product history to use to create forecasts. This is especially true of new products in the pharmaceutical industry. It is also likely that the additional variables that will be discussed here were also factors that could have been modified to be included as part of the Australian firms described above to further analyze the results of each of these organizations in the study in order to improve forecasting.
Some of the variables that must be considered regarding the pharmaceutical industry might include consumer awareness of the disease state and the amount of advertising as well as the number of vendors selling similar items (Cook, 2006). Cost is also a factor, as is the propensity for a given physician to correctly diagnose the disease state that the product covers. Additional factors that affect whether a given patient will actually fill the prescription and use the medication might include the side effect profile as well as the dosing schedule. If the pharmaceutical is for a child, the taste of the product would also be a factor to consider, as a competitor may have a better tasting drug that the consumer is more likely to buy in order to increase compliance despite the better efficacy of the organization’s innovation. A weighting process can also be used to
Budget management analysis is used by mangers as a tool and helps determine that all resources available are being used efficiently. The budgets are determined yearly and are based upon the previous year’s budget and variances. This paper will discuss specific strategies to manage budgets within forecast, compare five to seven expense results with budget expectations, describe possible reasons for variances, give strategies to keep results aligned with expectations, recommend three benchmarking techniques, and identify those that might improve budget accuracy, and justify the choices made.
In addition to these factors, the company must also take into consideration sales numbers such as current sales as well as projected future sales growth as they
Forecasting should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecast demand for its products.
* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.
The sales forecast is the basis for all the company’s budgets (e.g. production budgets, selling and administrative expense budgets, etc.). Understating the sales budget can have an adverse effect on the company as all the company’s budgets depend on the sales budget. Therefore, if the sales budget is understated the remaining budgets will follow suit. In the case of William George, marketing manager of Crunchy Cookie Company, understating the sales forecast is poor management style, an unethical practice, and can affect the ability to plan for future operations.
Forecasting numbers and data is an extremely important role in policy making. Economic forecasting plays an integral key role for the decision-making process, helping governments and policy makers to devise major policies and strategies. Many times, there will be an abundant amount of statistical forecasting being done in order to forecast various economic indicators, however the complexity of them changes a lot across different measures. Often times their will be many different sources that have published relatable economic data which conclude of different forecasts for major macroeconomic variables.
A company's budget serves as a guideline in planning and committing costs in order to meet tactical and strategic goals. Tactical goals such as providing budgetary costs for daily operations, and strategic objectives that include R&D, production, marketing, and distribution are all part of the budgeting process. Serving as a guideline rather than being set in stone, the budget is a snapshot of manager's "best thinking at the time it is prepared." (Marshall, 2003, p.496) The budget is a method in which to reign-in discretionary spending, and will likely show variances between what costs have been anticipated and what costs are actually incurred.
The central challenge that budget developers encounter is predicting what the future holds for the internal business and external factors. Reading the future is something that can never be done with perfect precision. The fast pace of technological change, the complexities of global competition and world events make developing effective budgets both more difficult and more important.
Every year in the United States, thousands of pharmaceutical drugs are created, tested, and eventually introduced into the market for consumption by consumers in need. Moreover, because of these new additions of more effective, and therefore less expensive, medications to the market, society as a whole can have better access to safer, environmentally friendly, and economically rewarding products. Not only are the different treatments beneficial from a logical standpoint, they also provide consumers comfort; they can take solace in the fact that they are using the most advanced method of treatment they can. Still, despite the many benefits of the development of new, innovative medication, many consumers are still reluctant to try them, because
The cheaper medicines whose composition isn't designated obviously need to now not be taken. Reports inform that there are unique companies which copy brand names and furnish the medicines at more cost-effective rates. The primary-time purchaser cannot make out which one is common and which one just isn't.
The company has to be able judge its spending performance. Does not matter what type of company it is, the ability to measure performance using budgets is an important process in any business organisation. Planning helps to understand where business is at present and where it is going to be in the future. Company’s planning process has to involve different developing objectives and prepare
Before, the concept of demand forecast was to serve the key functional groups in achieving their own interest. Facing the new challenges, forecast needed to be more accurate. And therefore it needed a new concept that is to have a consensus forecasting that would accurately reveal market demand and align the needs of key actors in the forecasting process. Leitax implemented two specific changes in forecasting process. The first one is to switch the focus from sell-in to sell-through and second one is to ignore capacity constraints.
* Here you should include a simple table showing the years and the total sales for each year, along with a brief explanation of why sales are expected to rise, fall, change, or stay the same in certain years. Provide a brief explanation of the sales forecast, indicating why you expect sales to rise or fall during the planning horizon. Your explanation should be consistent with the trends and changes in sales found in your table:
Pharmaceutical companies should attempt to be as transparent as possible when marketing prescription drugs to the public. Their marketing efforts should not only convey the benefits of the prescription drug, but also easily convey the possible risks associated with the prescription drugs. Many patients may tend to think the benefits outweigh the potential risks of prescription drugs and may pressure their physician to prescribe it. Due to the way the prescription drug is marketed, the consumer may believe the
It is claimed that in many organisations the traditional budgeting remains widespread, and that 99% of European and US companies are using budgets and have no intention of abandoning them, it was also stated that over 60% of those companies claim that they are not highly satisfied with their current budgeting systems and are continuously trying to improve the budgeting process to meet the demands set for management in creating sustainable value (report: Better Budgeting, 2004, p.2-3). From this perspective it is obvious that traditional budgeting approach and budgets in general hold many benefits as well as problems.