As operations manager of Holz Furniture, youmust make a decision about adding a line of rustic furniture. Indiscussing the possibilities with your sales ma nager, Steve Gil bert,you decide that there will definitely be a market and tha t your firmshould enter that market. However, because rustic fu rniture has adifferent finish than your standard offering, you decide you needanother process line. There is no doubt in your mind about the decision,and you are sure that you should have a second process. Butyou do question how large to make it. A large process line is goingto cost $400,000; a small process line will cost $300,000. The question,therefore. is the demand for rustic furniture. After extensivediscussion with Mr. Gilbert and Tim Ireland of Ireland MarketResearch, Inc., you determine that the best estimate you can makeis that there is a two-out-of-three chance of profit from sales aslarge as $600,000 and a one-out-of-three chance as low as $300,000.With a large process line, you could handle the high figure of$600,000. However, with a small process line you could not a ndwould be forced to expand (at a cost of $ 150,000), after whichtime your profit from sales would be $500,000 rather than the$600,000 because of the lost time in expanding the process. If youdo not expand the small process, your profit from sales would beheld to $400,000. If you build a small process and the demand islow, you can handle all of the demand.Should you open a large or small process line?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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As operations manager of Holz Furniture, you
must make a decision about adding a line of rustic furniture. In
discussing the possibilities with your sales ma nager, Steve Gil bert,
you decide that there will definitely be a market and tha t your firm
should enter that market. However, because rustic fu rniture has a
different finish than your standard offering, you decide you need
another process line. There is no doubt in your mind about the decision,
and you are sure that you should have a second process. But
you do question how large to make it. A large process line is going
to cost $400,000; a small process line will cost $300,000. The question,
therefore. is the demand for rustic furniture. After extensive
discussion with Mr. Gilbert and Tim Ireland of Ireland Market
Research, Inc., you determine that the best estimate you can make
is that there is a two-out-of-three chance of profit from sales as
large as $600,000 and a one-out-of-three chance as low as $300,000.
With a large process line, you could handle the high figure of
$600,000. However, with a small process line you could not a nd
would be forced to expand (at a cost of $ 150,000), after which
time your profit from sales would be $500,000 rather than the
$600,000 because of the lost time in expanding the process. If you
do not expand the small process, your profit from sales would be
held to $400,000. If you build a small process and the demand is
low, you can handle all of the demand.
Should you open a large or small process line?
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